EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

With 1.4402 minor support intact, further rise could still be seen in EUR/USD. However, price actions from 1.4217 are treated as consolidations to fall from 1.5143 and should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.4402 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 1.4266 support will suggest that such fall from 1.5143 is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed at 1.5143 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD. Focus now turns to 1.3737 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3736). Decisive break there will also confirm the case that three wave consolidation from 1.2329 has finished at 1.5134 too. In other words, whole medium term term fall from 1.6039 should be resuming for a new low below 1.2329. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bearish.