Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3591; (P) 1.3696; (R1) 1.3797

EUR/USD's break of 1.3585 confirms that recent down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 next. On the upside, above 1.3695 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral but short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3838 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, three wave rise from 1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Break of 1.4217 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.


Economic Indicators Update

21:45NZDRetail Sales M/M Dec0.00%0.70%0.80% 
05:00JPYHouseholds Confidence Jan3938.237.6 
07:00EURGerman GDP Q/Q Q4 P0.00%0.20%0.70% 
10:00EUREurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 A0.10%0.30%0.40% 
10:00EUREurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 A-2.10%-1.90%-4.00% 
10:00EUREurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec-1.70%0.10%1.00%1.40%
10:00EUREurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Dec-5.00%-1.70%-7.10%-6.90%
13:30CADNew Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Dec2.60%2.00%-6.00% 
13:30USDAdvance Retail Sales Jan0.50%0.30%-0.30% 
13:30USDRetail Sales Less Autos Jan0.60%0.40%-0.20% 
14:55USDU. of Michigan Confidence Feb P 74.874.4 
15:00USDBusiness Inventories Dec 0.40%0.40% 
15:30USDNatural Gas Storage -176B-115B 
16:00USDCrude Oil Inventories 1.4M2.3M