EURUSD: With a firm hold below the 1.4625 level, its Nov 03’09 low established, further downside risk continues to point lower towards the 1.4500 level, its psycho level. A breach will open the door for more downside pressure towards its Oct 02’09 low at 1.4479 or even lower. The current price action has halted the pair’s medium term pattern of higher highs and lows and increased risk of a deeper price retracement. Its weekly RSI is bearish and trending lower supporting this view. On the other hand, a failure below the 1.4625 level if seen will turn focus to the upside towards the 1.4799 level, its Nov 20’09 high where a reversal of roles is expected to turn it back down again. If that fails, we may see further climb higher towards the 1.4949 level, the back of invalidated LT rising trendline. Beyond there will clear the way for a run at the 1.5143 level, Its YTD low.
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