The pair closed higher the past week but stopped short of breaking above its falling trendline. Our bias remains lower in the immediate term as long as EUR continues to hold below its short term falling trendline (red) and the 1.4534/76 levels. This will expose the 1.4014 level with a break below here targeting the 1.3837 level, its July 12'2011 low. On further weakness, its Mar 06'2011 low at 1.3751 and subsequently the 1.3700 level, its psycho level will be aimed at. On the other hand, to avoid this from happening, the pair will have to return above its short term falling trendline and the 1.4534/76 levels. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.4696 level, its Jun 07'2011 high. Further out, the 1.4938 level, its 2011 high comes in as the next upside target. All in all, EUR faces the risk of returning below the 1.3837 level while holding below its falling trendline.

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