The EUR/USD briefly traded beneath 11/17 lows before stabilizing as we witness a broad based strengthening of the Dollar in reaction to a dip in the S&P futures below their psychological 1100 level. The wave of disconcerting data points from the past couple weeks appears to finally be taking its toll on investor confidence. U.S. and British housing and consumption data has been disappointing lately, indicating a slowdown in the pace of their respective economic recoveries. Furthermore, although the EU data-wire has been relatively quiet this week, last Friday’s EU GDP data left sohttp://www.ibtimes.com/biz_manage/articles/news/write.phpmething to be desired. On a positive note for the Euro, ECB President Trichet made some straightforward comments in his press conference today in regards to the ECB’s intent to start tightening liquidity. Although Trichet was a bit vague in terms of exactly which measures the central bank plans on reigning in, his language today seemed a bit more pro-active than the last ECB press conference. As a result, the EUR/USD is holding up rather well today and the Euro’s relative strength is highlighted by a solid upturn today in the EUR/GBP. Although EU data was light this week, the European Union will kickoff next week with a wave of Flash PMI numbers along with more dialogue from Trichet. Investors saw encouraging improvements in the last set of EU Flash data, particularly from France. Any further strength in Monday’s PMI numbers could combine with today’s hawkish statements from the ECB to help buoy the EUR/USD should the S&P’s present pullback accelerate.
Technically speaking, we’ve readjusted our uptrend lines to account for recent weakness. That being said, the EUR/USD still has a few more solid uptrend lines sitting nearby as technical cushions should the broad-based strengthening of the Dollar continue. However, a failure of our new 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines could result in more near-term accelerate losses since they run through November and October lows. As for the topside, recent weakness in the EUR/USD has created a few more technical barriers, including multiple downtrend lines along with 11/20, 11/18, and 11/16 highs. Furthermore, the 1.50 level continues to have a strong psychological presence. Meanwhile, investors should monitor the S&P’s ability to stay around its psychological 1100 level, for if losses accelerate the EUR/USD may follow suit due to their positive correlations.
Present Price: 1.4833
Resistances: 1.4859, 1.4882, 1.4904, 1.4919, 1.4943, 1.4967, 1.4983
Supports: 1.4824, 1.4813, 1.4796, 1.4781, 1.4763, 1.4738
Psychological: 1.50, November Highs and Lows