EURUSD: Remains Vulnerable To The Downside While The 1.4751 Level Caps.

EURUSD-While the pair traded to as high as 1.4770 at the beginning of the week, it gave back those gains and turned lower on Wednesday breaking its daily channel base before closing the week at 1.4657 following a low of 1.4527. As long as the pair continues to trade below its key resistance at 1.4751 registered in early Nov’07,risks are for the resumption of its nearer term decline off the 1.4967 towards a solid support at the 1.4535/20 area, its Mar’1995 high/Nov 12’07 high where a cap is expected before it heads higher again. Breaking down through here will open the door for additional downside pressure towards its .382 Ret (1.3359-1.4967 rally) at 1.4356 and then the 1.4278 level, representing its Sept 28’07 high. Further weakness if it occurs could see the pair targeting its Oct 09’07 low/psycho level at 1.4014/00.The daily RSI remains neutral to bullish.However,on a clean break above the 1.4751 level, a move towards the 1.4918 level, its 1.618 Fib Ext. (monthly Chart) ahead of its YTD high at 1.4967 will be favoured with a loss of there resuming its medium term uptrend. On the whole, although EUR remains weak in the short term, this is seen as corrective and should continue its primary uptrend on ending the present corrective pullbacks.

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term –Bearish

Short Term -Bearish

Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:

Past Week: +0.16%

Past Month: +1.13%

Past Quarter: +5.40%

Year-To-Date: +11.06%

Weekly Range:

High -1.4770

Low -1.44527

GBPUSD: Declines Through Its Daily Channel Base, Aims At The 2.0156 Level

GBPUSD-A decline through its daily channel base at 2.0437 saw the pair weaken for the second week in a row to a low of 2.0181 the past week.This is coming on the heels of its failure at the 2.0833 high set on Nov 28’07.With a recovery seen on Thursday and Friday ahead of its weekly rising channel currently at 2.0156, a corrective upmove following the said weakness could be shaping up.However, the mentioned support at 2.0156 level remains significant as a break of there could accelerate downside pressure towards the 2.000/1.9974 zone, representing its psycho level/.786 Ret and next the 1.9877 level, its Sept 18’07 low. Its daily/weekly momentum indicators remain supportive of this view as they continue to trade lower.Alternatively,a follow- through on its two-day upside gains should push the pair higher targeting the 2.0367 level, its Sept 12’07 high initially and then the 2.0461/94 zone, its Aug 03’07/Oct 01’07 highs with a break through there putting the next upside objective at its July 24’07 high at 2.0652.All in all,EUR remains susceptible to further downside in the short term towards its weekly channel base currently at 2.0156.

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term -Bearish

Short Term -Bearish

Medium Term -Bullish

Performance in %:

Past Week: -1.27.%

Past Month: -1.11%

Past Quarter: +1.91 %

Year-To-Date: +3.65%

Weekly Range:

High -2.0679

Low -2.0181

USDJPY: Extends Its Recovery, Triggers A Break Out Of A Reverse Head & Shoulders

USDJPY- As USDJPY recovery off its recent low at 107.22 continues to gain momentum, a break through a reverse head and shoulders neckline has been triggered pushing the pair to a high of 111.79 before closing the week at 111.69 on Friday, its second weekly closes since printing the mentioned low in late Nov’07.The pattern’s breakout price objective stands at 115.26 level, established by measuring the distance between the head and the neckline and projecting it from the breakout point. Before the 115.26 level lies its Sept 12’07 low at 112.60 and the 113.26 level, its Oct 22’07 high. Above the 115.26 and 115.93 level (Nov 01’07 high)will be needed to neutralize its medium term downtrend and bring further upside gains. On the other hand, while a reverse head and shoulders is a bottom reversal pattern, as long as the pair continues to trade below the 112.60 level or even the 113.26 level, risk remains for a decline aiming at its Aug 12’07 low at 111.58 followed by the 108.99/109.13 zone, its Nov 11’07 / May’06 lows and ultimately towards the 107.22 level, its Nov 26’07 high. A drop below there will trigger the resumption of its medium term downtrend now on hold. In short, USDJPY continues to build on its present recovery and now looks to even push more higher but continues to maintain its medium term bearishness.

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term -Bullish

Short Term -Bullish

Medium Term -Bearish

Performance in %:

Past Week: +0.43%

Past Month: -3.64%

Past Quarter: -6.80%

Year-To-Date: -6.21%

Weekly Range:

High -111.79

Low -109.56