The EUR/USD is retreating from earlier gains after Standard & Poor's announced it has lowered its credit outlook for Spain to negative. The EUR/USD is taking a slight hit from the news, and it will be interesting to see if intra-day losses accelerate as investors focus on Spain due to a lack of pertinent economic data. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is balancing along our 2nd tier uptrend line as bulls look to keep the currency pair above November lows. Our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines may carry some weight since they run through September and August lows, respectfully. Hence, if the EUR/USD doesn't solidify soon, the currency pair could be in for another wave of near-term selling pressure. That being said, the EUR/USD still does have our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with November lows. Should conditions deteriorate, the EUR/USD could find solid support in the form of its psychological 1.45 area and October lows. As for the topside, the EUR/USD is building near-term topside barriers as it weakens. The EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 12/07 highs and the psychological 1.50 level. Therefore, it seems near-term topside techncials outweigh supports, meaning there remains a downward pressure on the EUR/USD. As a result, investors should monitor the behavior of gold and the S&P futures as investors await Thursday's set of important economic events.
Although today is light on the economic data side, Thursday could have more than enough news to move the FX markets. Australia will begin with key employment data during the Asia trading session, followed by French Industrial Production, the BoE's monetary policy statement, and U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims along with its Trade Balance. Lastly, China will release its Industrial Production number during Friday's Asia session. The FX markets have been rocked by psychological developments throughout the week, meaning investors will be looking for fundamental confirmation from Thursday's data flow. If economic data prints poorly, then the EUR/USD may be subjected to addition near-term selling pressure. On the other hand, a wave of encouraging data points could help weaken the Dollar and allow the EUR/USD to consolidate while building a new base.
Present Price: 1.4707
Resistances: 1.4724, 1.4738, 1.4754, 1.4780, 1.4812, 1.4841
Supports: 1.4691, 1.4682, 1.4669, 1.4650, 1.4640, 1.4628, 1.4612
Psychological: 1.45, 1.50, November Lows