A clear breakout seen in early morning trading today has increased the risk of further strength towards its YTD high at 1.4446. As highlighted in our special focus, the bigger picture remains higher medium term and attacking the upside with an eventual break of 1.4446 will activate that uptrend towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18'08 high. Invalidating the latter will put the pair in position to head further higher towards the 1.4875 level, representing its Sept 21'09 high. Its daily stochastics and RSI are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support begins at the 1.4405 level ahead of the 1.4176 level, its Sept 01'09 low followed by its MT rising trendline currently seen at 1.4142. That zone should cap declines and turn the pair back up if seen. However, on a turn below that level, EUR should weaken further towards the 1.3747 level, its Jun 16'09 low. Overall, with a continued hold above its rising channel seen and a breakout occurring, EUR looks to trigger the resumption of its medium term uptrend now on hold.

Support                Comments

1.4405                   Aug 27'09 high

1.4176                   Sept 01'09 low

1.4142                   MT trendline

Resistance            Comments

1.4446                   YTD high

1.4719                   Dec 18'08 high

1.4875                   Sept 21'09 high

Daily Chart: EURUSD

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