EURUSD: Although strength on the back of its past week gains has seen EUR breaking above its strong resistance/range top at 1.4446/79 on Monday, that price action remains corrective of its short term downtrend activated off the 1.5143 level in Nov'09. While the pair closed Monday session higher, it experienced some form of price hesitation at the 1.4556 level and ahead of its daily 50 ema (1.4563). If a combination of those two levels turns off the pair, a retest of the 1.4446/79 levels will follow and that support must hold to keep its recovery triggered off the 1.4216 level alive. However, if that zone fails a decline towards the 1.4262 level, marking its Jan 08'10 low is expected where a decisive violation will turn attention to the 1.4216 level, its 2010 low. Our short term outlook is for this level to give way and trigger the resumption of its ST downtrend set off at the 1.5143 level towards the 1.4176 level, its Sept 01'09 low with a loss of there accelerating further downside weakness towards the 1.4044 level, its Aug 17'09 and subsequently its big psycho level at 1.4000. On the other hand, the risk to this analysis will be a clean invalidation of the 1.4556/63 levels which should put the pair on the pathway to further upside recovery towards the 1.4625 level, its Nov 03'09 low where a cap is anticipated to turn EUR back down. Further out, upside price objective is located at the 1.4799 level, its Nov 20'09 high. On the whole, EUR still retain its broader ST weakness started off the 1.5139/43 levels despite its current corrective price activities.

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