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EURUSD:Although price activities have been on the upbeat following the pair’s Monday weakness, as long as the 1.3097/93 area or even the 1.3113 level remains unbroken, nearer term outlook for the pair remains to the downside. Having said that, a clean invalidation of its Mar 16’09 low at 1.2833 will call for additional declines towards the 1.2456 level, its Mar 04’09 high. Below there will set off further declines towards its 2008 low at 1.2330. Daily stochastics and RSI remain bearish as well, pointing towards further weakness. Our alternative scenario will be a halt in the present declines triggering a recovery and targeting its eroded support turned resistance at the 1.2991 level. Beyond there should yield further upmove towards the 1.3097/93 area, its Feb 09’09 high/.50 Ret (1.2456-1.3738 rally) ahead of the 1.3113 level, its Mar 30’09 low. We expect a combination of these two levels to reverse roles and provide resistance thereby turning the pair back down again. Further out, resistance is located at the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27’09 high. On the whole, having maintained continued downside losses since tumbling off the 1.3738 level, risk remains to the downside. 

Support Comments
1.2833 Mar 16’09 low
1.2456 Mar 04’09 high
1.2330 2008 low

Resistance Comments
1.2991 Feb 23’09 high 
1.3097/93 Feb 09’09 high/.50 Ret(1.2456-1.3738 rally) 
1.3113 Mar 30’09 low

Daily Chart: EURUSD