EURUSD: The pair may have closed the week almost flat and printing a hammer candle on the daily chart but while it holds below its Feb 09'10 high/Feb 01'10 low at 1.3838/51 and the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21'10 low/Feb 03'10 high, we see risk to the downside. With that said, the pair retains its broader weakness activated from its 2009 high at 1.5143 and should push towards the 1.3584/30 levels where a break will clear the way for the resumption of its medium term downtrend towards its .61 Fib Ret/May 18'09 low at 1.3422/09 and then its Jun 03'09 low at 1.3211.Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. However, the immediate risk to our analysis will be its Friday hammer print triggering a corrective recovery higher which should target its Feb 10'10 level at 1.3675 at first with a cut through there exposing its Feb 09'10 high/Feb 01'10 low at 1.3838/51. We expect a reversal of roles at this key resistance zone capping further upside gains and turning the pair back down again. Above the latter level if seen will bring the 1.4025/28 levels, its Jan 21'10 low/Feb 03'10 high into focus.

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