Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The EUR/USD was projected to the 1.3820/1.3830 area in a recent post.
- The market did rally to and past these projections, topping at 1.3860. From there we are seeing a second swing down.
- This swing has 1.3730 in sight, at which point we have an ab=cd retracement type pattern. We might see support around this area for a bullish attempt to continue test the 1.3860 high.
- However if this support does not hold, the bearish scenario can be considered if the market breaks below the 1.3680, 61.8% retracement area. What we should then look for is a failed bullish attempt after the RSI dips below 30. If the RSI in this bullish attempt fails to break above 60 and then returns below 40, we should have established a top.
- Before this confirmation, the market is still bullish, and has upside risk to 1.3975 area, 78.6% retracement.
- The 4H chart shows the bearish targets with a support at 1.3540 that needs to be broken for a decline to 1.34, and below that, 1.3250. The 1.3250 level is seen in the daily chart to be at the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally that started in January so it will be important to monitor this area.
- To confirm a strong bearish attempt, the 4H RSI needs to break below 40.
- The daily chart also shows the upside risk as long as the market stays above 1.3680. But even below 1.3680, 1.3540 holds key support.
Is the EUR/USD done with the rally or, will the market test 1.3975? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist