Forex Technical Update
EUR/USD 4H Chart 8/3/2012 7:20AM EDT
After the market faded the EUR/USD in the wake of Draghi's latest comments, the pair found support at about 1.2140 and is now back to 1.2280 as we gear up for the 8/3 US session, with the NFP release just an hour away.
The 4H chart shows that the bullish momentum since last week is maintained as the RSI reading held above 40. Now as we head toward the next key risk event, the market is pushing toward some resistance factors, 1.2330 and 1.24. If the market pushes through these levels after the NFP, a swing projection targets the 1.2470 area.
At this point, this week's price action is between the 1.24 handle and the 1.2140 support area. A break out from this area suggests the market has decided on a direction after a week of central bank and NFP risk events.
The daily chart shows that the 1.2470 projection up to the 1.25 handle resides a declining trendline connecting key highs in June.This is the first challenge to the bullish scenario if the market pushes through 1.24 after the NFP.
A break exposes the next key levels in the 1.2970-1.30 zone, which includes the 200-day SMA.
This bullish scenario however goes against the trend seen in the daily chart. With the market pushing higher into a major risk-event, one has to consider the possibility of the buy the rumor sell the news type of action.
To the downside, if the market clears this week's low, it exposes the 1.20 handle as well as the 2010-low near 1.19.
EUR/USD Daily Chart 8/3/2012 7:20AM EDT
Fan Yang CMT is a forex trader, analyst, educator and Chief Technical Strategist for FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.