Currently sitting on the former resistance trend line coming from 1.3840 of February 9, the euro shows some uptrend perspective on a short term basis, but still being under selling pressure. Last week's recovery along with the recent failed attempts on breaking lower below the 1.3450-1.3500 region suggest that a bottom might be in place and there's still room to the upside towards notable technical barriers such as 1.3860 and 1.4. Important support around 1.3550 formed by last week's bottom is where the euro should find reasonable bids to switch course, so that the current bias remains positive. According to the COT data, selling pressure continues to reach record levels after last week's minor recovery. Here is an interesting yet controversial view of Goldman Sachs I came across recently - in short words: they recommend going long EURUSD with a target at 1.45 and stop below 1.35, as sentiment towards Greece improved. Time will tell if their view should be a contrarian indicator or a profitable call. Meanwhile, my view remains slightly bullish on the euro, while holding above 1.3550-1.36. I am currently long @1.3655 with stop at 1.3570 - 1% risk and will consider adding to the short-term position on a potential rebound above 1.3730, targeting 1.3850 first - and 1.4 later, while (again) short-term structure remains bullish. Upcoming important economic events that may have impact on EURUSD are: the German Zew Economic Sentiment tomorrow at 11:00 GMT and the Fed Interest Rate decision & FOMC Meeting Minutes at 19:15 GMT; Thursday's US Consumer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Trichet's speech on Friday, at 8:45 GMT. Current exchange rate is 1.3671 @19:58 GMT
A stable bottom has been formed on the 90.00 mark and while it holds, a potential break above the downward trend line resistance coming from 93.75 is doable. Last Friday's rally has been limited into the 91.00 region despite better than expected Retail Sales figures. While key resistance in S&P500 at 1150 remains in focus, the Yen should face weakness against the dollar, hence 91.00 and 92.00 being the first important resistance levels to watch. Below 89.25/50, short term sentiment would turn negative. In the mean time, I remain bullish on the USDJPY and will consider buying on break above 91.00 or on an extended correction into the mid 89 territory. Current exchange rate is 90.49 @19:58 GMT
Last rally into the last month's top side around .7080 has been short lived but sentiment is mixed as the kiwi dollar doesn't extend losses, consolidating around the 70 cents mark. Therefore, short-term momentum remains bullish and support around .6960, backed by .6920/40 a bit lower is expected to form a decent barrier for now. On the upside, key resistance comes around .7100 - formed by recent top and a rising trend line extended from .6970 of December. Current exchange rate is .7015 @19:58 GMT
Have a great evening!