EUR/USD's reversal from 1.2873 and strong rebound from there suggest that fall from 1.4281 is possibly finished at 1.2873 already. We'd favor another rise another as 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3158) holds. Decisive break of 1.3469 resistance will confirm this case and target 1.4281. Also, note that the corrective structure of the fall, with 1.2643 support intact, will indicate that rebound from 1.1875 is possibly not over yet and another high above 1.4281 would likely be seen. On the downside, sustained trading below 4 hours 55 EMA will turn focus back to 1.2873 support instead.

In the bigger picture, main question remains on whether medium term correction from 1.6039 has finished with three waves down to 1.1875. Current development, the shallower than expected fall from 1.4281, suggests that could indeed be a correction to rebound from 1.1875 only. And with 1.2643 support intact, rise from 1.1875 would possibly be in progress. break of 1.3433 will target a test on 1.4281 resistance. On the downside, below 1.2873 will turn focus back to 1.2643 instead.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.

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