EUR/USD's rally resumed after brief consolidations and reached as high as 1.4005 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.3860 from 1.3427 at 1.4037. Break there will extend the whole rise from 1.2873 towards 1.4281 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3832 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. Nevertheless, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3427 support holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3427 support holds, we'd favor the case that rise from 1.2873 is extending rebound from 1.1875. Also, that would mean that we're favoring the case that medium term correction 1.6039 was completed with three waves down to 1.1875 and the long term up trend might be resuming. Break of 1.4281 resistance will further affirm this case and target 1.5143 resistance and then 1.6039 high.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, firstly, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 to contain downside. Secondly, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.