EUR/USD's choppy sideway consolidation continued last week and so far, the pair is still limited below 1.4537 resistance. Thus, we'll stay expect and expect more consolidative trading. On the upside, break of 1.4537 resistance is needed to signal up trend resumption. In that case, EUR/USD should target a test on 1.4939 high first. On the downside, below 1.4054 will target a test on 1.3837 support.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3859) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. Break of 1.4939 should confirm rally resumption and should send EUR/USD through 1.5143 resistance towards 1.6039 high. However, considering that weekly MACD has been staying below signal line for some time now, a break below 1.3837 will have the trend line support, as well as 55 weeks EMA firmly taken out. That would argue that the rally from 1.1875 has indeed finished and will bring deeper fall towards 1.2873 support and possibly below.

In the long term picture, while the set of three waves from 1.6039 to 1.1875 should mark the completion of a pattern, the rally from 1.1875 is so far unconvincing as an impulsive wave. That is, price actions of 1.6039 could indeed be developing into a prolonged sideway pattern with rise from 1.1875 as the second wave. Hence, even in case of further rally, we'll start to look for reversal signal ahead of 1.6039.

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