After dipping to 1.3498, EUR/USD rebounded strongly to as high as 1.3936 last week. Such recovery might still extend but we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 1.3972 resistance. Below 1.3703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3498 first. Break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 1.4548 and should target 161.8% projection at 1.2979, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. However, sustained break of 1.3972 will likely bring stronger rebound towards 1.4548 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates that medium term rise from 1.1875 has completed with three waves up to 1.4939 already. That also suggests that it's merely part of the consolidation pattern that start back in 2008 at 1.6039. Further decline would now be seen to 1.2873 support first and break will target 1.1875 and below. On the upside, above 1.4548, resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 1.4939 or we'll stay bearish in EUR/USD.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

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