Despite initial dive to 1.3145, EUR/USD lost downside momentum and recovered since then. Note that while further recovery cannot be ruled out yet, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3689 resistance holds. Recent decline is still in favor to continue. Below 1.3241 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and should sent EUR/USD through 1.3145 to 161.8% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3969 from 1.4548 at 1.2979, which is close to 1.3 psychological level. However, break of 1.3689 will confirm short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and should bring stronger rally to 1.3936 and above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.1875 has completed with three waves up to 1.4939 already. Also, it's merely part of the consolidation pattern that started back in 2008 at 1.6039. Further decline would be seen to 1.2873 support first and break will target 1.1875 and below. On the upside, above 1.4548, resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 1.4939 or we'll stay bearish in EUR/USD.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

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