EUR/USD's fall form 1.4842 extended further to 1.4483 last week but so far, downside momentum is not too convincing yet. Friday's rebound pushed 4 hours MACD above signal line and turned intraday outlook neutral. Some sideway trading might be seen initially this week. But still another fall is still in favor as long as 1.4672 resistance holds. Below 1.4483 will target 1.4177 support next. However, note that a break of 1.4672 will argue that fall from 1.4842 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4842/4867 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 is the third leg of the medium term consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329 and has possibly completed its own five wave sequence at 1.4842 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.4177 support will add much credence to this case and further break of 1.3747 support will confirm. In such case, deeper decline should be seen that sends EUR/USD through 1.2329 low eventually. Meanwhile, another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment. But we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 1.4867 to bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.2329 are treated as consolidation in the larger down trend. The fall from 1.6039, therefore, is expected to resume after completing the consolidation. Below 1.2329 will confirm that such down trend has resumed for at least a test on 1.1639 key long term support. We'll hold on to this long term bearish view as long as 1.4867 resistance holds . However, decisive break of 1.4867 will seriously dampen this bearish view and open up the case for stronger rise to retest 1.6039 record high.