EUR/USD's fall accelerated after taking out 1.3145 support last week and reached as low as 1.2946 before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 1.3212 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2946 will target 1.2873 support first. Whole decline from 1.4939 should head to 100% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3145 from 1.4246 at 1.2452 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is still in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern and has just resumed. Further decline could be seen to 1.1875 and below. Nonetheless we'd expect strong support above 1.1639 key level to contain downside. On the upside, above 1.3538 is need to be the first signal of bottoming while break of 1.4246 resistance is needed to confirm completion of fall from 1.4939. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish even in case of recovery.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

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