EUR/USD dived to as low as 1.3266 last week before recovering. With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 1.3570 resistance and bring fall resumption. The strong break of 1.3443 support last week confirmed that whole medium term fall from 1.5143 has resumed. Below 1.3266 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3116 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.5143 is apparently developing into a five wave impulse (1.4217, 1.4578, 1.3443, 1.3817, ?). Current decline from 1.3817 might be the fifth wave of this sequence and could draw some support from 1.3 psychological level and turn EUR/USD into consolidation. But after all, the medium term bearish outlook will remain unchanged even in case of rebound. That is, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. Such decline is expected to break through 1.2329 low eventually.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at 1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD