EUR/USD was held above 1.3266 low last week and rebounded strongly. The development indicates that consolidation from 1.3266 is still in progress with the third wave started at 1.3282. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 1.3590 resistance and above, possibly to 1.3817 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3364 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3266 low instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD's fall from 1.5143 has possibly completed the five wave impulsive sequence already (1.4217, 1.4578, 1.3443, 1.3817, 1.3266) on bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Some lengthier consolidation would now be seen with risk of stronger rebound. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.3266 at 1.3983, which is close to 1.4 psychological level, and bring down trend resumption. The overall bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. Such decline is expected to break through 1.2329 low eventually.

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at 1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD