EUR/USD formed a short term bottom at 1.2625 last week on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and rebounded strongly. Further recovery could be seen in near term to 1.3076 resistance and above. But we'd expect strong resistance at 38.2% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3244 to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2838 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2625 low first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It's hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. . But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. We'd at least prefer to see sustained break of 1.3145 support turned resistance before considering near term reversal.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.