EUR/USD edged lower last week but was supported by 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3116 and recovered. Some more consolidations would be seen this week first. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.3417 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 1.3114 will target 100% projection at 1.2682 next.
In the bigger picture, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already and fall from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. We'd expect fall from 1.5143 to break through 1.2329 low eventually. On the upside, break of 1.3691 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at 1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.