EUR/USD's rebound from 1.2625 short term bottom extended further to as high as 1.3233 last week and there is not sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3244 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3627. But after all, such rebound is viewed as a correction for the moment. Below 1.3077 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for a retest on 1.2625 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It's hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. Though, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3653) will pave the way for a test on 1.4939 resistance level.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.