EUR/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.2526 last week before forming a temporary low there. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some consolidation would be seen initially this week. But upside should be limited well below 1.3114 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2526 will target key support level of 1.2329 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are treated as correction to long term up trend from 0.8823 and fall form 1.5143 is the third leg of such correction. Further decline should be seen to 1.1639 key support level and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of break of 1.3691 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.