EUR/USD's rebound was limited at 1.3093 last week and resumed recent decline by taking out 1.2526 and reached as low as 1.2352. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for key support level of 1.2329 first. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.3691 to 1.2526 from 1.3093 at 1.1928 next. On the upside, above 1.2575 minor resistance will indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2752).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are treated as correction to long term up trend from 0.8823 and fall form 1.5143 is the third leg of such correction. Further decline should be seen to 1.1639 key support level and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of 1.3266 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD