EUR/USD edged lower to 1.2143 last week but formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Further rise would probably be seen initially this week as correction continues to 38.2% retracement of 1.3691 to 1.2143 at 1.2734 and above. Nevertheless, upside should be limited below 1.3093 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement at 1.3100) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.2295 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2143 will target 1.20 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, the break of 1.2329 low confirms that whole down trend from 2008 high 1.6039 has resumed. Such down trend should now target 1.1639 key support level and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of 1.3266 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.