Despite edging higher to 1.3321 last week, EUR/USD lost momentum from there and retreated sharply. A short term top is likely in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 1.3028 support. Break there will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.2625 and bring retest of this support. Also, in that case, whole decline from 1.4939 is likely resuming for another low below 1.2625. On the upside, above 1.3321 will extend the rebound from 1.2625 towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It's hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. Though, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3605) will pave the way for a test on 1.4939 resistance level.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.