EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | June 05 2010 11:25 AM

EUR/USD's down trend resumed after brief consolidation and reached as low as 1.1955 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.5143 to 1.3266 from 1.3691 at 1.1814 next. On the upside, above 1.2082 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But recovery should be limited by 1.2330 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high 1.6039 has resumed and should should now target 1.1639 key support level and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1433. Nevertheless, strong support might be seen between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 and bring reversal. But after all, On the upside, break of 1.2671 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.

EUR/USD