EUR/USD dipped to as low as 1.1875 last week but recovered since then. More consolidations might be seen initially this week and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited below 1.2330 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.1875 will target 100% projection of 1.5143 to 1.3266 from 1.3691 at 1.1814 and then 1.1639 key support. However, break of 1.2330 will in turn suggest that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.1875 and stronger rebound would then be seen to test 1.2671 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2008 high 1.6039 has resumed and should now target 1.1639 key support level and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1433. Nevertheless, strong support might be seen between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 and bring reversal. But after all, On the upside, break of 1.2671 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.