EUR/USD's rebound from 1.2625 resumed last week and reached as high as 1.3486. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. Note that firstly, rise from 1.2625 is showing some sign of acceleration. Secondly, bullish convergence condition was seen in daily MACD. Hence, fall from 1.4939 might be finished at 1.2625 already. Decisive break of the 1.3627 resistance will also have near term trend line resistance firmly taken out and would affirm this bullish case. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 1.4246 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3383 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But strong support should be seen from 1.2974/3321 support zone to contain downside and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) are treated as a long term consolidation pattern and there is no clear indication of completion yet. That is, price actions could remain corrective and relatively unpredictable. Another rising leg inside the consolidation pattern could have started at 1.2625 already. But strong resistance could be seen at around 1.5 psychological to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the pattern. Meanwhile a break of 1.2625 should extend the fall from 1.4939 to 1.1875 and below.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.