EUR/USD rebounded strongly after initial fall to 1.3003 and a short term bottom is possibly formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, we're still favoring another fall with 1.3290 resistance intact. Below 1.3048 will flip bias back to the downside and break of 1.2974 will confirm completion of rebound from 1.2625. However, sustained break of 1.3290 will suggest that fall from 1.3486 is finished. More importantly, this will indicate that rise from 1.2625 is still in progress for another high above 1.3486.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) are treated as a long term consolidation pattern and there is no clear indication of completion yet. That is, price actions could remain corrective and relatively unpredictable. Current development suggest that the falling leg from 1.4939 is not finished yet and break of 1.2625 should pave the way to 1.1875 low. On the upside, we'd prefer to see sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now 1.3540) to indicate the start of another rising leg inside the pattern.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.