EUR/USD rose to 1.3385 last week but turned side way since then. Nonetheless, with 1.3191 minor support intact, rebound from 1.3003 is still in favor to continue. Above 1.3385 will target 1.3486 resistance first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 1.2625 and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. On the downside, below 1.3191 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn focus back to 1.3003 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) are treated as a long term consolidation pattern and there is no clear indication of completion yet. That is, price actions could remain corrective and relatively unpredictable. Current development suggest that the falling leg from 1.4939 is not finished yet and break of 1.2625 should pave the way to 1.1875 low. On the upside, we'd prefer to see sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now 1.3523) to indicate the start of another rising leg inside the pattern.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.