After some intraday consolidations, EUR/USD's fall from 1.3330 resumed and reached as low as 1.2663. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. Sustained trading there will argue that medium term decline is likely resuming for another low below 1.1875. On the upside, break of 1.2921 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3385) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will pave the wave to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4699).

In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.

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