EUR/USD's choppy recovery from 1.2994 continued last week and reached as high as 1.3269. Further rally could be seen in near term. But after all, note that recent price actions have been very indecisive, as seen in the triangle pattern from 1.3486. Break of 1.2994 or 1.3385 is needed to clear the outlook. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral. Break of 1.3384 will indicate that consolidation from 1.3486 has completed and rebound from 1.2625 is resuming. On the downside, break of 1.2994 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and would possibly resume the larger decline from 1.4939.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4939 is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern that started at 1.6039. We're slightly favoring the case that such decline is completed at 1.2625, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.3486 resistance will affirm this case and indicates that another rising leg of the long term consolidation has started for 1.5 psychological level. Though, strong resistance would likely be seen there to extend the consolidation. Meanwhile, break of 1.2625 will invalidate this view and target 1.1875 low instead.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.