EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | May 13 2012 3:37 PM

EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2904 last week and the break of 1.2994 support revived that case that rebound from 1.2625 is already completed at 1.3486. Near term outlook will now remain mildly bearish as long as 1.3065 minor resistance holds. EUR/USD should target a test on 1.2625 support first. Also, whole decline from 1.4939 is possibly resuming and break of 1.2625 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4246 to 1.2625 from 1.3486 at 1.2484 next. Though, above 1.3065 will dampen this immediate bearish view and mix up the outlook.

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In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4939 is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern that started at 1.6039 (2008 high) and current development suggests that it's not finished yet. Break of 1.2625 would likely pave the way to 1.1875 and below as the consolidation extends. Meanwhile, break of 1.3486 resistance should now indicate that the fall from 1.4939 is finished and will turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5 psychological level to continue the long term consolidation.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.