EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

   on June 30 2012 4:52 PM

Despite dipping to 1.2406 initially last week, EUR/USD staged a strong rebound since then. The development indicates that corrective rise from 1.2287 is not over yet. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside for 1.2747. Break will target 100% projection of 1.2287 to 1.2747 from 1.2406 at 1.2866 next. Though, we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.3282 to 1.2287 at 1.2902 to limit upside. After all, fall from 1.4939 is still expected to continue for another low below 1.2287. But break of 1.2406 is needed to signal completion of the current consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4939 is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern that started at 1.6039 (2008 high) and could extend to 1.1875 low and below. In that case, though, strong support is expected from 1.1639/1875 support zone to contain downside and bring rebound. After all, such consolidation would extend further inside range of 1.1639/6039 for some more time. On the upside, break of 1.3486 resistance is needed to indicate completion of fall from 1.4939. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.

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