EUR/USD faced strong resistance ahead of 1.4577 and retreated last week. While such retreat to 1.4229 was bit deeper than expected, the late rebound and break of 1.4400 suggested it's merely a correction and has completed. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus back on 1.4577 resistance. Decisive break there will indicate that correction pattern from 1.4939 has completed with three waves down to 1.3837. In such case, the larger up trend is likely resuming for 1.5 and beyond. On the downside, however, below 1.4229 will bring another fall to 61.8% retracement of 1.3837 to 1.4537 at 1.4104 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3832) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and above 1.4939 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.