EUR/USD's choppy fall from 1.4537 extended further to last week and reached 1.4054 but there was no follow through selling to send it through 1.4 psychological level. Meanwhile, the fall from 1.4537 does look corrective too which argue that rise from 1.3837 is not over. Near term outlook would probably remains quite mixed. Though, firstly, another decline would be seen as long as 1.4371 minor resistance holds and EUR/USD might continue to head lower towards medium term trend line support (now at 1.3826). Secondly, break of 1.4371 will signal that rise form 1.3837 is likely resuming for a test on 1.4939 high.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3826) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and above 1.4939 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.