EUR/USD continued to engage in choppy sideway trading in familiar range last week and outlook remained unchanged. Consolidation from 1.4537 is still in progress and could extend further. On the downside, below 1.4054 will bring another fall to test 1.3837 support. On the upside, a break of 1.4401 will trigger rally attempt to test 1.4537 resistance. But again, break of 1.4537 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of rebound from 1.3837, or more consolidative trading would be seen.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3859) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and above 1.4939 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
In the long term picture, correction from 1.6039 might have completed at 1.1875 already. Meanwhile, up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 might be resuming. Break of 1.5143 resistance will affirm this case and should pave the wave through 2008 high of 1.6039 to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.6039 from 1.1875 at 1.6705.