EUR/USD Weekly Outlook and Trading Idea

By Roger Baettig | July 01 2012 5:36 PM

Main analysis

Update for: 2012-07-02 - 2012-07-08

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Posted on: Sunday, 01 July 2012 16:38

eurusd

EURUSD: 1.2665

Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend

Outlook:

EUR declined initially last week to as low as 1.2407 but then rallied strongly on Friday to close near the 1.2670 Fibonacci level. Based on the presented wave count, the current rise from the early June's low is wave (X). If correct, the market can top out at any time and the decline on the daily chart can resume. But this wave count also allows a larger recovery twd 1.2900/1.3000 area before the bears take control again. So, the market is not in a very clear position from a trading perspective. We need to see a break below 1.2400 in order to solidify the bearish scenario.

Strategy: Holding short from 1.2600 is favored. Stop=1.2750.

Next Update: Sun, 07/08/2012.

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