Update for: 2011-09-26 - 2011-10-02

Posted on: Sunday, 25 September 2011 22:46

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EURUSD: 1.3497

 Short-Term Trend:  downtrend

Outlook: After some sideways trading early last week, the downtrend resumed here and EUR made new lows for the year - below 1.3400 level. Now, the wave count shows the X wave is likely over and if that's the case, further weakness twd 1.3200 will be expected this week. At the same time we shold not that the downward momentum has slowed, so we may see a short-lived but sharp rally sometime this week.
From a trading perspective, I turned short on this market near 1.4400 but then said last week that since our 1.3520 target was met, I would be more neutral. Right now the picture on the daily chart is firmly bearish but I can't find a compelling low-risk level to short this market. The key resistance levels are seen at 1.3935 and 1.4045 so ideally the stop should be placed abv these levels.

Strategy: The trend is lower but the risk/reward ratio is not compelling now.

Next Update: Sun, 10/02/2011

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