Update for: 2010-06-14 - 2010-06-20

EURUSD: 1.2111

Short-Term Trend: downtrend

Outlook: EURUSD attempted a rally last week from its 1.1876 low and recovered to as high as 1.2152. You can see from the important Fibonacci levels drawn on the chart that the single currency actually rallied to the 1.2146 Fibo level (which is also a strong chart level - initially support, now - resistance). And so far, the price remains firmly below the declining 21-day moving average - a bearish sign. Thus, despite the divergences between the price and the MACD and RSI indicators, we still favor the short side here and expect another decline to commence soon. Only sustained trading abv 1.2146 will negate this immediate bearish view but only abv 1.2346 will indicate that a ST low is likely in place, 1.2671....

Strategy: Trading from the short side is favorable as long as the prices stay below 1.2220. Target=1.1600


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