Sat, 25th of April, 2009

By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a significant bullish correction this week. After broke the 1.3100 to the downside the pair bottomed at 1.2886 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and hit the top at 1.3299. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support did a very good job preventing further downside movement. Also we have a big triangle formation indicating consolidation phase in medium term. Since had a bearish momentum from 1.3734 we have 2 minor bullish channel correction (number 1 and 2) and whenever the channel breakdown to the downside, the bearish scenario continued. So I see a potential “war” next week, whether the pair is going to make a breakout to the upside from the triangle to make a bigger bullish scenario back towards 1.3734 or breakdown from the third minor bullish channel (number 3) and continue the bearish scenario. Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.