EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push higher this week, topped at 1.4198 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside and closed lower yesterday at 1.3974. From bigger point of view on weekly chart below, we can see that the pair actually in bullish correction phase, testing 50% Fibo retracement (of 1.6037 – 1.2327) around 1.4176 area. As long as the pair stay below that level we have to see the significant bullish run since March just as a correction movement. As you can see on the chart, this bullish correction is the second attempt. The first one happened between October – December 2008. The bullish correction at that time was even more significant, reached  61.8% Fibo retracement then fell to March 2009 low at 1.2456. This unclear and volatile movement is also reflected in the last several weeks where price still trapped between 50% and 38.2 Fibo retracement (1.4176 – 1.3750) without clear direction. My technical levels focus for the upcoming week remains the same : 1.4176 – 1.3750. Technically, as long as the pair stay below 1.4176,  I prefer downside scenario. However only consistent movement below 1.3750 would provide us with the best short position opportunities. Have a great weekend and see you guys next week :)