The EURUSD attempted to push lower this week, bottomed at 1.3528 but whipsawed strongly to the upside, topped at 1.3837 and closed at 1.3751. There are no changes in my h4 chart outlook where price still trapped in range area of 1.3860 – 1.3420 and need a clear break from that range to see clearer direction. Now I want to look at a broader view from a daily chart perspective with more details and try to see some potential scenarios. First, look at the triangle (red) which I already mentioned few weeks ago, suggests a consolidation phase and that condition remains the same as price still moves inside the triangle. A bearish outlook appeared, when a “head and shoulders” (H&S) pattern was formed, until price broke above the “right shoulder” (1.3500), canceled the H&S bearish scenario, turned the outlook to bullish which may testing the “head” (1.4248) and the major trend line resistance (white), but need to make a clear break above two technical resistances: 1.3860 and the upper line of the triangle which could be located around 1.4000. Now let’s take a look at the bearish scenario. If price fail to make a clear break above 1.3860, a double top bearish formation could be formed, with a clear break below 1.3420 as the validation to the bearish scenario testing the lower line of the triangle which could be located around 1.3100 – 1.3200 support area. From this long term outlook, a clear break above or below the triangle could determine the next/new major direction.
Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.
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