EURUSD Weekly Summary

The EURUSD was indecisive this week. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.3115 on Wednesday but made a nice recovery and closed higher at 1.3312 on Friday. It’s clear for me that the recovery was triggered by hope on Greece debt problem solution (again). Although many traders and analysts don’t believe that EU and IMF rescue plan for Greek can really work as it is so far proved just an empty rhetoric, the fact that the Euro was able to recover shows that further upside recovery could continue, at least in the nearest future. However, of course, the long term view should remain bearish as Euro zone problems are not only in Greek but also in Spain and Portugal. If EU and IMF don’t give something real and keep making empty promises they will lost credibility and that could be a much bigger problem which could bring Euro down significantly.

On technical point of view, The pair is making a minor bullish channel since recover from 1.3115 level. We have seen some bullish minor channels during the major bearish trend and they were violated one by one before making new lows. For the incoming week, the 1.3267 level remains a key level. Break below that level and violation to the newest minor bullish channel could continue the bearish scenario re-testing 1.3115. Break below 1.3115/00 area could open the door for further bearish outlook towards 1.2880 in longer term point of view. On the upside, the recovery from 1.3115 could test 1.3450 area especially if price able to move convincingly above 1.3267 – 1.3330 area. Break above 1.3450 area could trigger further recovery testing the upper line of the major bearish channel and 1.3600 region.

Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

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