While recent rally in EUR/USD continued last week, upside momentum continued diminish on mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Nevertheless, there is no sign of topping yet as long as 1.4884 minor support holds and further rally to 100% projection of 1.4177 to 1.4842 from 1.4483 at 1.5148 cannot be ruled out. But upside would likely be limited there and bring pull back. Below 1.4884 minor support will indicate that a short term top should at least be formed and bring fall to 1.4483 support in this case.

In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no sign of topping in EUR/USD yet and current rise might still extend further towards 1.6039 high. However, the whole set of price actions from 1.2329 look is viewed as part of wide range consolidation that started at 1.6039. Hence, upside of the current rise should be limited below this 1.6039 key resistance and bring at least one more medium term fall to complete the consolidation pattern. Break of 1.4483 support will be the first sign that rise fro 1.2456 has completed. Further break of 1.3747 support will confirm and turn outlook bearish for 1.2329/2456 support zone.

In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range consolidation that started from 1.6039. Another another medium term decline could still be seen to 1.2329 and below but downside should be well contained above 1.1639 support. The long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term consolidation from 1.6039.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/USD